Miguel Cotto's Chances Against Manny Pacquiao
The Odds Say that Cotto is the Underdog, and So Do Many Experts
Nov 11, 2009
Quite some time ago, in a Manny Pacquiao interview, Pacquiao jubilantly expressed his comfortability fighting at 135 lbs. He even said he could try 140.
He was asked further: "147?"
His answer wasn't straight, so promoter Bob Arum halted the inquiry by saying "we're keeping him away from Miguel Cotto."
That was before Antonio Margarito beat (with an asterisk and a question mark) Cotto. And now, oh, how times have changed. Less than a month befor their November 14 mega fight in Las Vegas, the town-based oddsmakers in the popular gambling city have booked Cotto as the underdog, as well as many boxing experts opinionating on the fight.
Odds: Cotto a 2-1 underdogIn most sports betting circles, Cotto generally has received a 2-1 fractional designation. The sportsbook at SportsBetting.com says that in oder to win a $100 on Pacquiao, you have to wager $260, as Pacquiao is noted as a -260 favorite, while you only have to bet $100 on Cotto and roughly double it, as Cotto is +200 on the books.
As the fight draws near, and as the Las Vegas scene turns more vibrant, with bettors gathering more information about the fighters and their preparations for the upcoming fight, shaking their judgments and swaying their decisions a little bit, the betting figures are going to change. Some reports have actually shown that Cotto's standing in the bookmaker's eyes have improved to a shade under a full two-to-one underdog, but it is still near the given mark. Remember, the betting numbers are based on the public's perception of the fight, that is, if more people think Pacquiao will win, and makes a gamble toward that thinking, the numbers will switch to negative for Pacquiao, signifying that he is the favorite. Then, vice-versa.
The oddsmakers do have a hand in the numbers, obviously the reason they are called such, and the odds have to start with a number, which oddsmakers presumably provide for the books. It is hardly unwarranted to, because the bookmakers are also pretty knowledgeable about the sport. The difference is that their inclination leans toward the gambling business rather than the sport itself. Now, if you are closer to the core of the sport, you understand better that Cotto is not that much of an underdog.
Biggest Questions About the Fight
The fight is much closer to the eyes of those closer to the sport, but there are many questions about it which split many boxing writers down to the wire when it comes to their opinion about the fight.
For Pacquiao, there is always the size factor. He has surpassed expectations and made his size a non-issue in his rise to the heavier ranks, but since his debut from 130 and above, he has not been tested enough to determine whether or not he can take a punch from a bigger man. Cotto is a bigger man. His three performances are even demeaned by some critics, in a nutshell, saying: Diaz was limited and a paper champion, De la Hoya was shot and weight-drained, and Hatton was just a club brawler who was never the same after his first career loss. Cotto claims he is nothing like any of Pacquiao's past opponents.
Cotto might be right. Cotto is a legitimate titleholder, is in his prime, and will not go in dehydrated (two pounds to meet the 145 lb. limit should not be too demanding). The biggest question for Cotto boils down to this: has the Margarito fight changed Cotto? Before his eventful meeting with Margarito last year, Cotto was invincible, and even after an impressive win over Michael Jennings (who is, though, not on Cotto's class) and a gutsy victory over Joshua Clottey, those questions are apparently still unanswered, just ask the detractors.
Predictions and opinions appear to be strong on the case of each fighter. Below is an explanation in Cotto's case.
Miguel Cotto Can Defeat Manny Pacquiao
Cotto is the WBO welterweight champion. He is perhaps the top fighter in the welterweight division right now. He is yet to seek ground to anyone not alleged to have worn hardened handwraps. He is also just coming down a few pounds in weight, as opposed to his opponent, who would move up a maximum of seven pounds.
Yet he is not the favorite for the fight.
This can all be put squarely on Manny Pacquiao and his recent dominance. Watered down or not, Pacquiao was sensational and all in his last three outings, in three different weight classes. It has been overstated: He totally outclassed then-lightweight titlist David Diaz and knocked him out in nine rounds, annihilated then-boxing's top star Oscar De la Hoya to force him to quit after eight rounds, and demolished then-jr. welterweight world champion Ricky Hatton before he even saw the end of round two. Pacquiao's recent success is of epic proportions (modern day Henry Armstrong?) and is all-time great material.
But the ride may stop when he faces Cotto. Those predicting in favor of Pacquiao point to the obvious when they say that Pacquiao's speed will be too much for Cotto. Well, no so fast (on the opinion, that is). Cotto defeated Shane Mosley, Zab Judah, and Paulie Malignaggi-- all speed guys. The Boricuan banger has impeccable timing to deal with fast fighters, which Pacquiao is. Cotto also has the style that can allow him to deal with the Filipino. Pacquiao's whirlwind motion in the ring may be slowed down with Cotto's devastating body punches.' Cotto is one of the sport's most technically-sound fighter, and he is very versatile. He can punch, and he can box.
So, if you are going to bet for Pacquiao, better keep those in mind, especially when a bet for his opponent wins more money.
 |
