How Pavlik Can Beat Hopkins
Can the Ghost Hang the Executioner
Pavlik steps up in weight from his accustomed 160 pounds to fight a former light heavyweight champion, and arguably one of the better middleweights of all time in Hopkins. But weight isn't the real issue for anyone facing the 43-year-old future Hall of Fame candidate. The problem with Hopkins, as his talent and stamina fades, is maintaining ones marquee value after fighting him. Hopkins fights ugly.
During his 12 round decision loss to Joe Calzaghe last April, Hopkins managed to turn a thrilling first round knockdown of Calzaghe--and a potentially thrilling victory--into a laborious, split decision, loss.
No longer able to sustain his attack, Hopkins offense briefly bubbles to the surface, hissing and spitting with the appearance of danger, then it settles back under the surface to gather its strength once more.
Hopkins and Pavlik have one common opponent in Jermain Taylor, whom Pavlik beat twice (one KO and one decision) and Hopkins lost two disputed decisions to b, so they aren't a credible baseline for this fight. Hopkins has quickly faded since those encounters with Taylor.
Pavlik, young and fresh at only 26, is, in contrast, an active fighter. He uses his 6'2" height well, fighting tall with his chin tucked and his gloves high. The Pavlik jab is quick, straight, and accurate and it sets up a textbook straight right with good leverage on it .
Although he isn't known for hooks and uppercuts, Pavlik has them, he just doesn't lead with them as has become vogue to many young fighters who grew up watching Roy Jones Jr. or Floyd Mayweather. Pavlik sticks with fundamentals, opening up only when he sees his opponent vulnerable to a more varied attack.
What Hopkins does well in his twilight fighting years is fight ugly. His fighting style has become a sort of organized chaos. Lulling his opponent into a stupor by staying out of effective range, Hopkins will then rush in, head down and arms flailing, hoping to connect with something before he grabs his man around his torso to prevent any counter attack. Sort of John Ruiz light. It's a very amateurish style, but effective in that it has prevented Hopkins from losing by any great margins or from getting hurt by any measure.
That Pavlik will win the fight is nearly a given; his jab and work ethic in the ring virtually assures it. The real question for the Youngstown, Ohio fighter is whether or not he can dominate Hopkins, which is what he needs in order to boost his box office potential. He can dominate, but he must be patient.
Pavlik should be himself--don't get caught up in the Hopkins mind games and skittish fight pattern. Keep the jab pumping, keep the right hands short and straight, and keep Hopkins on the horizon so that he can see the charge coming and begin to time it. After a few rounds of what is likely to become a one-sided, slightly blunted, affair, Pavlik should be able to catch Hopkins an uppercut as the old guy lunges in with his head down and his arms flailing.
It will change the fight. If Hopkins is badly hurt, Pavlik will finish him. If only stunned, Hopkins will be forced to re-think his proclivity to lunging in and thus he will become an orthodox, vulnerable, fighter.
It should be an easy night for The Ghost. The Executioner will bring his own rope.
Kelly Pavlik
|
What do you think about this article?
Latest Articles