After a "Tijuana Tornado" passed through in July, and an eerily calm August, the boxing world is treated to three excellent lightweight bouts of considerable significance in September.
Katsidis vs. Diaz
With both fighters coming off first losses, there is much to prove--to themselves as much as to boxing at large. Katsidis's last fight had him and Casamayor taking turns bouncing off the canvas in an exciting contest whose outcome was in doubt until Casamayor finished the job in round ten.
Although physically stronger than Casamayor, Katsidis' inexperience and brawler's mentality cost him as he walked straight into the veteran's well-timed, and placed, counters.
While Katsidis probably learned valuable lessons about the sweet science against Casamayor, he can shelve them against Diaz, a light-hitting volume puncher who counts on his ability to wear opponents down. Boxing's version of Chinese water torture.
Diaz is also coming off a loss--against Campbell. The constant Diaz drip had little effect on Campbell, who dispensed with the dripping and just plain water-boarded Diaz. The fight went to the scorecards, but Diaz had mentally surrendered by round seven, content with the moral victory of surviving the fight.
In spite of Katsidis losing by knock out against Casamayor--he was knocked out because he was trying to win, not simply survive--he should beat Diaz.. That warrior's mentality, and superior strength gives Katsidis the edge over Diaz.
Casamayor vs. Marquez
This is Marquez's first fight at 135 after a three-fight campaign at 130, culminating in a close decision loss to Manny Pacquiao. While Marquez is most notable to casual fans for a draw and a loss to Pacquiao, it shouldn't be lost on anyone that had he not been knocked down four times (three in the first round of their first fight and once in the rematch) he would have won both fights.
A student of the highly esteemed Nacho Beristain, Marquez employs world-class skills and experience to go with them. But then, Casamayor has been around the block a time or two himself.
Though Casamayor's chin at times appears suspect (he went down vs. Katsidis and Armando Santa Cruz) his three losses, against Ancelino Frietas, the late Diego Corrales, and Jose Luis Castillo, all came by decision. With a hundreds of amateur fights (from the days when that actually meant something) and a wealth of experience against elite professionals to draw on, Casamayor is a handful for anyone to deal with. A motivated Casamayor, that is. His performance against Sant Cruz was dreadful.
With Marquez at 34 and Casamayor at 37, one wouldn't call either one of these men "fresh," but unless the extra five pounds on Marquez proves to be five pounds too much, he should be the stronger and more consistent fighter over twelve rounds, earning him a unanimous decision.
Campbell vs. Guzman
Of the three fights mentioned, this one should be the barn burner. Sure Katsidis/Diaz will keep the punchstat guys sweating, but it won't have the mix of athleticism, power, and skill--and the resulting drama--that this one does.
Guzman built his reputation at featherweight with classic skills, speed, and KO power. Since moving up to 130 the knockouts have all but disappeared for Guzman (32). Making weight has long been a struggle for the powerfully proportioned Guzman, but has yet to keep him out of the win column; whether the move to lightweight ultimately helps or hurts him will likely be one storyline leading up to the fight.
Campbell is the most unique, even unlikely, fighter of the half dozen in this mix. With no amateur career to speak of, Campbell turned pro at 26-years-old and crafted an unorthodox but effective style that compliments his physical gifts almost perfectly. Long-armed and powerful, Campbell uses angles effectively and, while possessing good technique, he doesn't seem to let it get in the way as some fighters who are well-schooled, but hyper-analytical, tend to do.
Though he is 36 and is the fighter with losses on his record ( most notably against Casamayor and Robbie Peden), Campbell has to be favored against the undefeated Guzman who, at 135, won't have the snap to keep Campbell from coming in and finding punching lanes. Unanimous decision to Campbell.
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